Getting out of Iraq

Even though Iraq sits in the cradle of civilization, and has thousands of years of human history, the country of Iraq is relatively new.  It had been ruled by the Ottoman Turks for a few centuries before World War I, and shortly after that conflict was handed over to Great Britain by the League of Nations.  The English granted independence in 1932, but re-invaded in 1941 to ensure that the government of Rashid Ali would not sell his oil to the Nazis.  See the Wickipedia history of Iraq.

Iraq has three main ethnic groups: Shia Muslims, Sunni Muslims and Kurds, the majority of whom are also Muslims.  Basically, Sunnis and Shias disagree about who was the proper successor to Mohammed.  Shias make up the largest percentage of the Iraqi population, about 55%; however, they have long been oppressed by Sunnis, who despite making up less than a fifth of the citizenry, were favored by Sunni dictator Saddam Hussein. Kurds make up about 21% of Iraq's population, and fared little better than the Shia under Hussein.

Shias live mostly in Southeastern Iraq, and share a long border with Iran, with whom they also share a spiritual and cultural affinity.  Sunni-dominated territory includes central and  western Iraq, along the Tigris and Euphrates rivers all the way to Jordan and Syria.  Kurds are the predominate ethnic group in northern Iraq, along the borders  with both Iran and Turkey. See Wikipedia's demographic map.

Much of Iraq's oil is produced in the northern Kurdish-controlled areas, and in the southeastern swamps, which are Shia controlled. The Sunni areas control much of the region's water.  There are potentially sizeable oil deposits in the sparsely populated deserts of the Iraqi south and west. Iraq Oil map. 

These three groups will never get along, and the United States does not have enough military power to make them.  Nor should we squander our power in that way.  However, all three regions have resources, and are viable on their own.  Ergo, the solution seems clear. 

Partition Iraq into three countries.  Allocate each of the three main ethnic groups a fair share of the resources.  Allow people of each ethnicity a period of time to relocate to their ethnic region under protective custody.  Finalize the borders... and get out, possibly leaving some forces in Kurdistan for a while.

This concept is supported by individuals with detailed knowledge and experience in diplomacy and middle eastern affairs; most notably, Peter Galbraith, former U.S. ambassador to Croatia; Leslie Gelb, president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations; and Senator Joe Biden, senior Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee

• Read an interview with Peter Galbraith from the Reason Foundation
• Listen to an interview with Peter Galbraith from NPR.
• Galbraith op-ed from the Sunday London Times.
• Review of Galbraith's book, 'The End of Iraq.'
• Discussion in Slate magazine.
• Op-ed by Leslie Gelb and Senator Joe Biden.

Kurdistan is already a de facto country.  It has its own flag.  The Kurds have basically run their own affairs in northern Iraq for a decade.  They are the most reliably pro-Western of the Iraqi factions, despite the fact that the United States has allowed them to be slaughtered on at least two occasions (by Saddam and by the Turks).  With an estimated 27 to 28 million individuals world-wide, the Kurds are the largest ethnic group without a homeland.  In order for the Kurds to get a homeland, the United States will have to help them broker a border and security agreement with Turkey.  Due to its own long-standing internal conflicts with a sizeable Kurdish population, the Turks could be expected to take military action against an autonomous Kurdish nation unless that nation enjoys the strong support of the U.S. and Europe.

• Kurdish demographics
• Background on Turkish-Kurdish relations.
• More detailed history of Turkish-Kurdish hostilities and issues.
• Kurdish government tourism/investment web site.

Shia Iraq is the second most viable state.  Unfortunately, it will likely align itself with Iran, greatly strengthening Iran's influence in the region.  It will mostly likely adopt Islamic Sharia law, oppress women, and disregard human rights.  This unintended—but easily foreseen—consequence will be one of the lasting legacies of the Bush Middle Eastern blunder.  Essentially, the United States has spend trillions of dollars to set up an Iran-friendly Shia theocracy on the doorstep to key middle eastern allies like Kuwait, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia.  How stupid is that?

Unfortunately, the situation is even worse than it seems.  Oil-rich, pro-Western Kuwait and Bahrain have a poor and oppressed Shia majority, and a minority Sunni leadership.  They could easily be destablilized by a restive Shia population, newly emboldened by the Bush crime family's failed Middle East policies.  Saudi Arabia, the world's number one oil producer and one of the most repressive regimes in the world, also has a large Shia population. Its long-term stability is shaky, even without a threat on its northern border.

The Sunni center of Iraq, unfortunately, is not governable.  It may not be for many years.  This leaves a large, anarchic, terrorist breeding ground with a long border to the world's most important oil producing nation, Saudi Arabia.  This is another horrible and unintended—yet foreseeable— consequence to the inane Bush Middle East blunder, and further destabilizes pro-Western governments in Saudi Arabia and Jordan.  Troops in Kurdistan and Saudi Arabia could help contain that threat.

Unfortunately, the Bush administration currently says they are not open to the idea of partitioning Iraq, and we must stay the course.  They have no strategy to extricate our nation from this quagmire.  They are too stubborn to admit they are wrong.  But they have been wrong about every thing Iraq.  Their lies put us into this mess, and their incompetence costs real American lives and treasure every day.  Surely, this is one of the strongest reasons arguing for impeachment.

A partition is the only way for the U.S. to get out of Iraq with anything other than total defeat, and every day we put it off means lives squandered needlessly. 

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